but you appear to be making the fairly common mistake of thinking gold price rise requires gdp to fall - it doesnt. and GB stock market valuations based on earnings outlook simply forceast an improved 6-9 month GBP earnings level due to the currency falls. It softens but wont stop the gdp falls associated with people being sacked, loss of exports and so forth.
always bear in midn the worse an economy's outlook the better stocks tend to do - up to a point - because it weakens the currency plus drives lower interest rates
is exactly like australia's experience when china cooled - finally when aud fell our national terms of trade improved - but the unemployment rate still rose from 5.1 to 6.3%. and thats the implied impact of gb's withdrawal
and in fact the really important factor to gold price is GB's withdrawal from the debtor pool backing the EU currency/bond market and trade pool.
As a result both EU and GBP are weaker, leading to lower bond yields
also need to keep in mind globally there's talk central banks need to raise target inflation rate to 4%
if anything like that was ever considered gold will go through the proverbial roof so long as interest rates stay low. gold/silver are at their most attractive in a negative real interest rate environment
US data can strengthen USD and so push some temporary weakness into USD POG
but it would need a much more broad based upswing in global interest rates - together with normalising debt etc to start pushing gold down as much as you say
nothing currently threatens the uptrend in visible data. but gold is right at top of the uptrend atm so it can certainly pull back to 1290 or so if there's really strong USD supporting information
though to me it looks unlikely. US corporate EPS continue to fall - tax receipts fall. Jobs growth is ok but not doing anything structural to fix the massive overhang of long term unemployed - and theres almost no wage growth.
real unemployment rate is around 6.5-7% once you factor in the very low participation rate (62.8%) vs the lt avg of 67%
residential housing continues to boom as locals and offshore investors try to source USD rental income
but otherwise you have to characterise US economy as low and slow growth
