Skol, you make some good points on the bookmakers having a good track record as indicators in these matters. I have a good understanding of bookmaking/sports betting and financial markets and should add to your post a little…
It is quite easy to skew a 'book' with some heaver money quite easily and quickly. Many financial traders also enjoy sports betting/follow bookmaking markets and this can lead to distortions also in financial markets for short periods of time until outcomes are known.
Looking at volume of betting slips might be a better way given its one vote per citizen. Individual wealth has no bearing on number of votes (supposedly) per citizen. If only one betting slip is posted for REMAIN with a bookmaker for $1000 and ten betting slips are posted for LEAVE with a bookmaker for $100 you may be able to work out the book odds ? ? ? In the referendum however that would be 1 vote four staying and 10 for leaving. It is a clear case of REMAIN favourites with bookies and EXIT the outcome at the polling stations. Think about this carefully…
Currently there are many more 'slips' for BREXIT (British EXIT) than BREMAIN (British REMAIN)
THIS IS THE KEY PIECE OF INFORMATION.
