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marri

2,397 Posts.

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02/07/16

00:36

Post #: 18175896
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Originally posted by goldbear77 ↑

flotsam

there are 3 main variables you need to think about - in my view - to work out which stocks will perform best from here - if yu are assuming gold price will rise

- cost of production - higher it is, more profit rises per % rise in gold price
- usd cost or aud cost base - and whether you think aud pog or usd pog qwill rise fster from here
- current earnings multiple per ounce/productiion+ prospect of future production increase

it was on this basis i was recommending rsg last nov rather than the aud producers

My own view is that usd pog will rise faster than aud pog will rise on a % basis. US is weaker intrinsically because of much higher debt to gdp ratio.

On that basis i rate the following as my top 10 on a 2yr + view - though im not fully versed on newmont, agg and a few others)

edv.to
rsg
nst
evn
sar
bdr
pru
slr
blk
sbm

just my 2c. i think understanding the valuation drivers is the main thing 0- so you can make your own choices

btw - if you dont think gold rises much from here - then the stocks yoiu would choose would be very different

gb

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Goldbear you have not included mine life.NCM, for example has very long life mines and some are high cost producers.
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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