I can see the arguement for a few different outcomes for the...

I can see the arguement for a few different outcomes for the market. I have a few thoughts and concerns about the development.

However, the simple fact the U.S is willing to put tarrifs on China highlights the strategic importance the U.S places on EV's, lithium and the critical minerals supply chain.

1. Tariffs have to have a short term impact on the spot price in China. It will reduce demand in the U.S for chinese EV's (We have seen that the last few days). Understand it's currently only 2% but would have been expectations for this growing.
2. Tesla is a huge winner.
3. This could accelerate U.S manufacturers moving towards EV (Ford, GM etc)
4. China may double down on securing supply across africa and cheaper sources in South America.
5. What was previously economic and relatively mid to low down on the cost curve is highly likely uneconomic now (Death of spec deposits)
6. Has PLS put a noose on it's own neck contracting most of it's supply to China? Would they have been better off being uncontracted (like MIN).
7. Why are the likes of SQM and ALB rallying? (It makes no intuitive sense to me).
8. Are true bottom of the cost curve deposits in friendly juristictions now worth more than ever given this new uncertainty?
9. Do China ramp even harder now to saturate every other market (Europe, Emirates and Africa, Asia PAC etc)

I'm honestly not sure what this does to the market in the short to medium term. My sense is it's negative but the U.S lithium players are rallying. Real head scratcher.