The German willingness to push Greece to the edge puzzles me. How can they be so unimaginative? If Greece defaults, leaves the Euro and does well, it may open the door for others to follow.
Portugal and Ireland aren't big enough to matter.
But if Spain or Italy left the Euro, the German banking system would be put under potentially catastrophic stress.
I think Draghi has a better understanding of the risk. During the Troika negotiations with Greece he has made a number of public statements praising the Rajoy government's economic management in a way that encourages us to think that a Espexit is not a likelihood.
In truth, the risk is tiny. Spain has its fiscal act together, and is currently experiencing some ponderous growth. So I wouldn't rush off and buy gold just yet.
