Thanks YA, So my back of envelope estimate that STO reserves...

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jsoho

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05/04/18

21:50

Post #: 32255755
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Originally posted by Ya ↑

jsoho:

y'r estimate for STO's EV/2P of AUD20/boe is correct.

Over the last 2 yrs their reporting has been in USD, so the current offer of 6.50AUD for 2083 mil shares + net debt of AUD 3563 divided by 848 is what u've mentioned (ie: $17102mil/ 848mmboe) is their basic metric for the entire firm.

At the end of the day there r different multiples that analysts look at when a deal of such size is announced, ie Ebitda multiple, FCF multiple (eg: 8 to 15x multiple) etc etc. Their gross debt is apprx USD3882mil & cash on hand 1231mil, hence the net debt of USD2.731b.

Also 96% of STO's 2P reserves from their portfolio r Gas-centric. Out of 2P reserves of 848 mmboe essentially 33 mmbbls is Oil & another 33 is condensate. Rest is gas & with 3 LNG projects they make a suitable company to cherry pick for an Acquirer like Harbor. I thought last qtr was going to b good for them till the PNG quake in late Feb.

Last year Harbor paid USD 3.8bil to Shell for UK North Sea out of which $3bil was cash upfront & the balance 600mil based on future oil prices of USD 60 and 70/bbl & 180m for any discoveries. I think this is what u were alluding to.

Back in 2015, Harbor-Alfa were paying C$6.50/sh for Pacific Rubiales who had a USD4.5b in debt & mostly South American footprint, but this offer was knocked back by PRE's shareholders & the aftermath got really messy esp. with their Lenders.

Re: actual value attributed to exploration, evaluation assets, existing O&G assets incl plant, bldg, equipmnt, land etc each year these r valued under their total Assets which is USD 10121 mil. Take away liabilities & u get the value of their Net Assets worth of around USD 7151 mil. It's all their in STO's Annual report.

As for the interest paid on liabilities, think its 5.15% weighted average (Section 5.1 of their AR).

Good to see the winds of change blowing in the O&G sector. With Beach acq. Lattice's portfolio, AWE & Mitsui doing their bit so it doesn't surprise me about the tire kicking around STO. Spence & Gallagher did a deal at Clough with M&R couple of years back, so will b interesting to see how things progress at STO now.

Bit detailed post, but u already knew the first bit
Hope this helps.

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Thanks YA,

So my back of envelope estimate that STO reserves were valuated at about $20, STBOIP? in the total bid package. Looking good for FAR re-valuation, I reckon.
Cheers.

FAR Price at posting: 8.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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