Oceanwall have also produced a report on ASP isotopes which proposes using AVLIS (Atomic Vapour Laser Isotope Separation) which was developed in the USA (and also France - SIVLA) in the late 1990's and abandoned by both developers due to massive corrosion issues with uranium vapor (at 4,131C and liquid at 1,132C). As I understand it USEC (now Centrus) dropped AVLIS in 1998 in favour of Silex and then abandoned Silex in 2002 largely due to USEC's financial distress and pressure from Oak Ridge National Lab (ORNL) who had a large (and influential) centrifuge group - see HERE). The link to the Oceanwall report is:
The report (which to me appears ridiculously optimistic (and ill informed) on difficulties & costs give the history of AVLIS) says this about the ASPI aspirations for HALEU. Whilst the regulation issues are outlined in the report from page 18 onward they appear to me to be very superficially handled for a viable project to successful in South Africa which is a signatory of non proliferation treaties who IMO are unlikely to be taken seriously by most of the western world.
"Through its newly formed wholly owned subsidiary, Quantum Leap Energy LLC (QLE), ASPI expects to enter thenuclear fuel market by 2027 and expects to enrich uranium to 19.75%. The laser-based enrichment methodpromises affordability, lower production costs, and efficient construction, positioning HALEU and nuclear poweras a cost-effective alternative to traditional, carbon-intensive electricity production.
The QLE method for uranium enrichment is referred to as “Quantum Enrichment”, which achieves theseparation of two isotopes by taking advantage of the slight differences in the transition energy between twoisotopes. This method is described as a “quantum mechanics” method. Using lasers to produce a large numberof photons, atoms can be selectively photonised and then electrically separated. The isotopic selectivity ofenrichment is very high and can likely produce the desired enrichment in a single step.
To date, the QLE enrichment method has proven the ability to produce highly enriched uranium at a lab scale,although not since the 1980s. However, since this process was done, lasers have improved dramatically,becoming much cheaper and more efficient ASPI is currently constructing an enrichment facility to enrichytterbium-176 and nickel-64 using Quantum Enrichment which could be production ready as early as Q3’24 andhas the potential to produce the highest gross margins across the Company product line.
Commercialising the production of these isotopes would be an essential milestone in the production timelinefor HALEU, as the chemical characteristics are similar those of U-235. The main difference being thetemperature at which U-235 vaporises is approximately 4x higher than that of ytterbium-176, otherwise, theenrichment processes have significant overlap. The similarities between ytterbium, nickel and uranium willmean that the construction of this facility will significantly reduce the time required to construct a HALEUfacility.
The company expects this plant to be completed towards the end of 2024 or early 2025, and they have receivedconsiderable interest from customers for both isotopes (Russia is the only commercial enricher of both).Management has said that regulatory barriers and licensing is likely the most significant challenge inconstructing a uranium enrichment facility using Quantum Enrichment and the Company is currently inadvanced discussions with three countries to obtain these licenses.
The efficacy of the QLE technology gained further credibility during 2023, when ASPI announced that it hadentered into two Memorandum’s of Understandings (MoUs) with two US-based SMR companies to supplyHALEU. The Company has also entered discussions with four additional customers to supply HALEU, focused onenriching uranium for the production of advanced nuclear fuels. Both the MoUs and the additional customerdiscussions are also focused on formalising a collaboration to develop a HALEU production facility. Thesediscussions include providing financial support for the development of a production facility and the future13supply of metric tons (MT) of HALEU. ASPI has received interest from potential customers totalling over $30bnof HALEU demand at recent market prices.
QLE estimates that the capital cost of constructing a Quantum Enrichment plant for uranium enrichment is lessthan $100m, approximately 85% cheaper than that of a traditional gas centrifuge enrichment facility. Weestimate that this cost could come down even further as they replicate plant manufacturing processes.
Quantum Enrichment plants are modular, so their construction time is likely faster and more flexible thancompeting technologies. In addition, the enrichment facilities are smaller than traditional gas centrifuges whichmeans they can place them near fuel fabrication facilities for enhanced security of production andtransportation. The Company expects operating costs to be comparable to or cheaper than costs for othermethods of uranium enrichment.
In terms of construction time, the Company expects a uranium enrichment facility could be built inapproximately 18-24 months (from receiving necessary licenses) and production volumes would gradually rampup to the final capacity of 20 MT per year per unit.Furthermore, many SMR projects were modelled and financed under the assumption that the cost of HALEUwould be approximately $7,000/kg, at which price, many reactor projects had double digit IRRs. The cost ofproducing HALEU today is much higher, closer to $30,000-40,000/kg. As such, these projects would producenegative IRRs making them uneconomical.
The main cost associated with producing HALEU today is the ore (feed), which accounts for approximately 54%of the overall cost of production. Enrichment makes up 35% of costs, while conversion accounts for 11%.
ASPI is looking to solve this issue. Initially, ASPI expects to use LEU or natural uranium (ore) as a feedstock,which will maximise the production volume of HALEU whilst still providing satisfactory gross margins. Becauseof the high selectivity associated with Quantum Enrichment, the Company believes it may be able to enrichdepleted tails (waste from other enrichers). The company expects to transition to this lower cost feedstock aftera few years. Not only will this provide a solution to a growing environmental problem (71,000 tonnes of wasteis added to global reserves per annum) but this gradual change in feedstock should result in substantially highergross margins and allow the Company to price HALEU at a lower price than any competitor and open upemerging markets customers who require a cheap, reliable source of energy.
Commercialising the production of HALEU from depleted tails would complete the circular economy for nuclear,and would be a game changer for the industry, CO2 emissions targets and how ESG, energy transition, climate,and green funds, look at the whole uranium sector and nuclear value chain"
SLX Price at posting:
$4.94 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
