'It begs the question why this mass migration has only cranked...

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1,630 Posts.

08/09/15

19:40

Post #: 15957700
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Originally posted by JFI ↑

Syria and Iran are the last key pieces of the energy jigsaw play in the middle east. Russia is unlikely to let go of its arrangements with Syria and overtures to Iran. The US is keen to make the play in Syria and Iran and Russia is unlikely to let it play out as the US may hope. This is the serious end of the Syrian war. As I mentioned a few days ago the last 3 years (actually 5 in some regions) is a preamble to a much larger fight for Syria. The displacement of Syrians and mass migration is not good.

It begs the question why this mass migration has only cranked up recently given that it has been going on for some considerable time now.

The picture emerging is indeed an ominous one and perhaps we are all immune to war given the amount we have viewed over recent decades. The it'll be right mentality is concerning right now.

This conflict is about to crank up big time.

I would cast everyone's minds back to Iraq and Afghanistan with no Russian involvement and how long and protracted they were. Given that the Syrian issue is much much more complex and has Russia as a stakeholder in an outcome not necessarily of Washington's choosing I would make considerations accordingly financially and otherwise.

A bad situation is likely to not only get worse but become globally very dangerous real soon.

As so some impact on fiscal outcomes it is not my primary consideration right now.

My thoughts.

JFI

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'It begs the question why this mass
migration has only cranked up recently . .'
Insightful, and indeed a chilling portent.

Macro Economics:
Guns or butter?
Guns:
Human sacrifice for the economic altar.
The multiplier effect of war.
A tragic macro boost for US (paper)?
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0 Great analysis

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