GOLD 0.51% $1,391.7 gold futures

"These two graphs, showing the loss of value of the currencies...

  1. 5,237 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 35

    "These two graphs, showing the loss of value of the currencies of India and China vs. the US will underpin the flow of physical gold into the two largest physical gold buying nations."

    The recent CNY trend change is likely to be the start of a long term trend change and the Indian rupee has consistently lost value vs. the USD for a long time.

    Imo there are some problems with this type of analises. First, what matters for the Indians, and by this I mean those that have no access to the international capital markets, are internal price movements or, if you prefer, inflation. But here one as to remember that India, the third largest oil importer, is benefiting from lower oil prices. Second, as India progresses its finantial market will become more sofisticated offering better rewards tha at present., including gold bank accounts. Beyond this, a new generation of better educated middle class people is emerging, which may turn to other types of investments. Third, for gold to flow in something has to flow out in payment. But India has been having a huge trade deficit and although some of that trade deficit is being covered by remittances from Indian workers and residents abroad a large part is being covered through borrowings. In other words, the gold that they are importing is being bought with borrowed money from abroad, a fact that may present a lot of problems for the Indian Government as those funds should have been directed to productive investment. This means that the Indian ability to keep on importing large quantities of gold is constrained. Finally, as somebody has already pointed out gold in India is bought with rupees not dollars and when the rupee falls so does the ability of people there to convert their savings into gold.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/present-value-of-external-debt-us-dollar-wb-data.html

    https://www.focus-economics.com/country-indicator/india/trade-balance

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gold_(Control)_Act,_1968
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add GOLD (COMEX) to my watchlist
 
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.