When? Well my post that you originally replied to calling me a doomer I clearly stated that I had concerns about Australia in 20 years time. This is the long term future for Australia if we don't change course. What happens when (not if) Chinas demand for our ore subsides? I stated that I had concerns for the next couple generations, not that the sky is falling tomorrow. And I once again note that you haven't disputed any of that, just continue to call me a doomer without putting up any counter arguments.
I suspect that's not the answer you were fishing for though. In the short term blind Freddy could tell you that we're in for some pain, I can't give you a definite date because the government has been kicking the can down the road for years to delay the recession. Everyone who expected a correction years ago underestimated what the government was willing to do to delay the inevitable.
If I had to pick one trigger it would be when the insolvency/bankruptcy laws are turned back on. The downstream affects of this policy are potentially massive. I believe the current date is 31st December 2020, and we probably wouldn't start seeing the effects in full for another couple of months after that. Therefore if I had to make a guess I'd say Q1/Q2 2021 assuming the insolvency laws don't get pushed out further. I would be quite surprised if they don't push them out another 6 months though which would mean late 2021. In the meantime I don't think anyone should be panicking (unless they are over leveraged), just minimize debt and have an exit strategy for your liquid assets when the time comes. If you miss the timing it's not the end of the world, don't sell at the bottom and the market will recover, but I'd rather not have to wait a few years to get back to where I am today.
Now it's your turn. Let's hear your prediction. When do you think the economy will get back on track/peak house prices return/asx over 7000/whatever metric you choose?
