Timber, I don't assign a lot of tail risk to the US economy although I do think the tail being the fed is wagging the dog. However there are major economies with higher systemic type risk that being Japan & Europe which IMO are in far more of a mess than the States & with less chance of pulling the proverbial rabbit from the hat, Japan in particular. As stated previously, that's not why I am bullish gold. I am not someone who is for gold in all seasons & I wrote a lengthy note to clients when gold was rocketing higher ( it was about $1800 at the time from memory ) that gold was in for an almighty fall. Admittedly I didn't think it would go quite as low as it did or as fast from when it broke $1650. My lowest target was $1250 so it went $70 below my target low. I have bought gold stocks on both occasions when it has hit $1180 & some when it was higher but overall have done very well by trading on the back of these moves in the gold price. I also did very well out of my bank stocks. Not all my goodies have been winners but the ones that have been, have more than made up for any hits. Anyway good discussion mate & yes I freely admit you know more about the US monetary system than I do. My career has focused on commodities & in particular gold.
