"you believe that the only driver for gold (up and down) is the (higher or lower) probability of systemic risk in the US monetary system?"
Not at all. That is what the media talk about, so it is a fair bet that it's irrelevant.
The price of gold is being driven by the balance between 1. production, 2. wholesale inventory levels and 3. consumption.
Take out No. 2 and the price of gold should rise. But I think that the wholesale inventories are larger than is generally understood, which explains the nervous sideways price action.
