Yeah KK. Sorry .... but here is another analysis with conclusions based on figures.
For those with the time and inclination for such dull things. I believe that there are many intelligent and appreciative people on this HC forum who read but do not always post... for their sake.. the following..
To importantly assess the 1.5% (19.93 - 18.45 = 1.48%) progressive Acceptances.. and the validity (or otherwise) of Comments suggesting that it was a negative indication of Acceptances... here is an analysis.
Docs posted priority Friday 13th April. Received Monday 16th.
The OZL Notice said that " there was a change in interests of the substantial holder on 23/04/18 " That is the Monday, a week later.
Now, given that the more savvy shareholders simply would not post their Acceptances off immediately and would await any possible further offers.. one could reasonably exclude the top 20 shareholders as having done this somewhat knee-jerk act.
Top 20 control 63% and the cutoff for that group goes down to holdings of 6.66m shares. Likely that "savvy" applies also to people with substantial holdings of 6.0, 5.0, 4.0 .. 1.0 million shares and below as well.
Of the balance of 37% shares outside top 20, contained within are 33 % who have holdings greater than 100,000 shares and up to 6.66m. The next largest grouping.
OK.. here is where the guesswork (modelling?) starts... of that 33% with useful holdings.. how many are broker-advised? A broker would be on the phone immediately to all such clients as a matter of course, in order to provide the proper advice that includes wait to post off docs.. to shut down the chance of a client sending documents prematurely. How many are on-line traders or investors who are bright enough to know that you do not immediately send off your docs??? maybe HC fans and have been tipped off there..?
I will have a guess at three out of four, which is not too high and may indeed be insulting them. 25%.. leaving an 8% residual in this group who do not know.
Of the "others" I will be harder and say half don't know. 2%
So that is 2% + 8% = 10% of AVB's total shares in the hands of people who quite possibly do not know to sit tight for now. But that is an estimate.. and may be insulting... it could be less.
Pre-paid envelope is Priority Paid so ideally next day delivery. So this 1.5% progressive acceptance represents 15% (1.5/10.0) of those who did not know to sit tight, who opened their mail on Monday night, filled it out and posted it Tues, Wed, Thurs or Friday. I think that is quite an "expected" outcome in the normal course of events. It is not an indication of anything.
CONCLUSION : Consider the group of unsophisticated AVB investors (did not know to hold on to docs for now).. and it is not imposssible that their % company holding could tally to 10%.
Knowing that, and granted that unsophisticated as they may be they were smart enough to notice that the closing date was out to Monday 14th May. No need to rush.. more important things to do for now ... etc. maybe some decided to wait and think about signing anything for a few days. But in the end 15 out of every 100 rushed their acceptance off straight away.... I suggest that is about what one might expect.. but that is strictly opinion.
So whether my figures support or not any Personal Agendas, the last thing that this progressive 1.5% can be said to indicate is ANY voting intentions of other shareholders.
It is not a small number as first suggested and should not be used in any post in a totally misleading way.
The Truth is always buried in a rigorous analysis, and not a superficial glance...
AVB Price at posting:
15.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
