and just to rub it in a bit , here is a bit of rather dry reading for Chartists discussion only ......
Its a discussion in general TA, as to how we can attempt to anticipate a trending breakout from a trading level.....
The chart of IAM has been in a Trading range for 4 weeks, ranging from peaks 65 to 77 in that time. There has been one "Aroon Up*" peaking period in that time and we have just entered another...
(NB this is an interim intraday reading only)
Using
Aroon Indicator Overview
The Aroon indicator was developed by Tushar Chande. Aroon is a Sanskrit word meaning "dawn's early light" or the change from night to day. The Aroon indicator allows you to anticipate changes in security prices from trending to trading range. For more information on the Aroon indicator see the article written by Tushar Chande in the September 1995 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine.
These changes are anticipated by measuring the number of periods that have passed since the most recent x-period high and x-period low. Therefore, the Aroon indicator consists of two plots; one measuring the number of periods since the most recent x-period high (Aroon Up) and the other measuring the number of periods since the most recent x-period low (Aroon Down).
The actual plotted value is a "stochastic"-like scale (see Stochastic Oscillator) ranging from 0 to 100. Assuming a default time-period of 14 days, if a security makes a new 14-day high, the Aroon Up = 100; when the security makes a new 14-day low, the Aroon Down = 100. When the security has not made a new high for 14 days, the Aroon Up = 0; when the security has not made a new low for 14 days, the Aroon Down = 0.
As explained in the interpretation section for the Vertical Horizontal Filter indicator, the age-old problem for many trading systems is their inability to determine if a trending or trading range market is at hand. Trend-following indicators such as MACD and moving averages, tend to be whipsawed as markets enter a non-trending congestion phase. On the other hand, overbought/oversold oscillators (which work well during trading range markets) tend to overreact to price pull-backs during trending markets—thereby closing a position prematurely. The Aroon indicator attempts to remedy this by helping you determine when trend-following or overbought/oversold indicators are likely to succeed.
Aroon: Interpretation
There are basically three conditions that you look for when interpreting the Aroon indicator: extremes at 0 and 100, parallel movement between Aroon Up and Aroon Down, and crossovers between Aroon Up and Aroon Down. Extremes. When the Aroon Up line reaches 100, strength is indicated. If the Aroon Up remains persistently between 70 and 100, a new uptrend is indicated. Likewise if the Aroon Down line reaches 100, potential weakness is indicated. If the Aroon Down remains persistently between 70 and 100, a new downtrend is indicated.
A strong uptrend is indicated when the Aroon Up line persistently remains between 70 and 100 while the Aroon Down line persistently remains between 0 and 30. Likewise a strong downtrend is indicated when the Aroon Down line persistently remains between 70 and 100 while the Aroon Up line persistently remains between 0 and 30. Parallel Movement. When the Aroon Up and Aroon Down Lines move parallel with each other (are roughly at the same level), then consolidation is indicated. Expect further consolidation until a directional move is indicated by an extreme level or a crossover. Crossovers. When the Aroon Down line crosses above the Aroon Up line, potential weakness is indicated. Expect prices to begin trending lower. When the Aroon Up line crosses above the Aroon Down line, potential strength is indicated. Expect prices to begin trending higher.
while the default period for this indicator is 14 periods, I feel this is going to lag to much so I have used 9 periods on the attached chart...It may trigger early and will need momentum confirmation..
Metastock uses the Aroon indicator as part of a hybrid Tech Analysis..todays results so far are assuming it will close on its 719 vwap.....
CS Scientific Inc. - Hybrid Trade Screen of
IAM(IAM)
Analysis of activity through 1/30/2017
close: 0.0720
The current trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered. Market activity analysis suggests that long trades put on outside of the +L+ focus zone have a lower probabilty of success than those placed in those zones highlighted on the expert ribbon. The current market price activity is Strongly Bullish and suggests favorable trade opportunities on the long side.
If already holding long positions, we would look to partial profits on any retracement to 0.0660. Traders with remaining long positions after profit taking should consider placing exit stops in the region of 0.0660. Be prepared for a potential short term price fall back to the 0.0697 area.
Suggested standing placement of fail-safe stops...
If Long -- exit all contracts at ... 0.0660
If Short -- exit all contracts at ... 0.0770
heres what it looks like..
constructive criticism very welcome
Usual escape clause is to maintain respect for the presence of the algorithms which had been trading into the 72 buy level.......buys are currently 71......cheers
