IMU 1.43% 7.1¢ imugene limited

Hi Zior, I value your technical analysis even though i use a...

  1. 387 Posts.
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    Hi Zior, I value your technical analysis even though i use a different method myself. However i think there are are a couple of other factors (economic conditions, market sentiment and liquidity) that effect IMU share price that i think you are missing and did in fact get wrong in Feb 2022, which i pointed out in the posts linked below. Effects of these macro factors (outside of IMU fundamentals) will override TA and IMU fundamentals (excluding a significant commercial deal). This was shown by the share price dropping from 62c to 4c while the IMU fundamentals were improving. Here is the discussion at the time when we had dropped to 33c and i doubted the significant support at about 24c would hold given the macro factors.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/imugene-chart-ta-only.5967260/page-11476?post_id=59310359
    https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/imugene-chart-ta-only.5967260/page-11476?post_id=59314001

    So i think it is crucial to have a view on the macro factors even for long term investors, no avoid 90% drops in share price (that we have experienced). IMU share price has gone up nicely in the last 2 months but this has coincided with the increase in markets generally. If the markets sell off 30-50%, IMU will not be immune from that (pardon the pun). And looking at it another way if the markets did not crash in 2022 do you think IMU would have dropped to 4c - no chance, we would be more than 60c. So with that in mind i am watching closely the markets and may sell and buy back in later if the markets start crashing. This is what i did this year, sold in Mar 23 at 12.5c and bought back in on Oct 23 for 4.2c increasing my position for less money. Had i not been swayed by the spin from Leslie i would have done this earlier and been even better off. Critical to this decision is when is the earliest likelihood of a commercial deal. Hard to say, maybe no earlier than July 2024?

    Anyway i am interested in your thoughts on my comments and your reflections on the past couple of years and if there is anything you learned that would make you do anything different next time.

    Merry Christmas everyone.
    Last edited by TheChosen: 23/12/23
 
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