FORMER defence minister Brendan Nelson is being tipped by Liberal Party insiders as the next leader of the opposition, one of Australia's biggest bookmakers says.
Neil Evans, analyst and media chief with Centrebet, said he had today been told by "a well placed and reliable Liberal party source" that Mr Nelson would be asked to take on the leadership.
"He told me that Brendan Nelson has the numbers, fits the image best and has the safest seat of all the potential leaders," Mr Evans said.
Other obvious candidates for the leadership after heir apparent Peter Costello's shock announcement that he will not stand include outgoing ministers Malcolm Turnbull, Tony Abbott and former leader Alexander Downer.
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But Mr Evans said the only other person in the picture was Mr Downer, whom he said "wants the job but still doesn't know that he hasn't got the numbers."
"Malcolm Turnbull was not mentioned," he said.
Mr Evans quoted the source as saying the feeling from inside the party before the election was that "Costello has the biggest ego in the world, and Turnbull may have shot himself in the head".
Mr Evans said the reliability of his source was beyond question.
"He told me in February that election would be middle or late November, but probably November 17," he said.
"He was one week out.
"He also told me at 5pm yesterday that Labor would win by more than the three to seven seats we were predicting.
"He predicted the huge slide in Queensland, where we watched seats fall to candidates who had not even been favoured."
Mr Evans said the source had told him former prime minister John Howard had "desperately" wanted to leave politics four months ago.
"He was coaxed to stay on board, while the feeling for the past few months has been that Costello had alienated himself from the core constituency of Liberal voters," Mr Evans said.
He said the source told him Mr Costello had been found to have been particularly unpopular with with older voters – those in the 35-60 age group.
He said 80 Labor candidates had won their seats at yesterday's election after starting favourite with Centrebet.
"The shortest priced favourite to end up being beaten looks like being John Howard at $1.50," Mr Evans said.
