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Hi Paul, Thanks for your comments, you hold a not too...

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dmdaly

144 Posts.

26/03/16

18:57

Post #: 17364751
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Originally posted by Paul12 ↑

I don't claim any specific or special knowledge in any of those areas. The understanding I've come to is that we will have no trouble at all selling our product, and I'm not sure that's the inference being made. The point of having other large suppliers around is that it may decrease the price we can sell our product for. The copper price is effectively set on a global scale. We will likely get better terms for our clean concentrate, but whether copper is at $2.50/$2.75/$3.00 US per lb is where we get affected, not in our ability to sell the product.

Just as an aside, my thoughts on the various articles around is that we have a number of very knowledgeable outfits with expertise that are taking different opinions on the demand/supply of copper over the next few years. Some are very bullish, some are very bearish. I personally disregard the likes of Goldman Sachs as they've been renowned shorters of copper for some time. They have plenty of skin in the game so their opinion I take with my seasoning. I found it interesting to note from a report in that article that copper supply has outstripped demand for the last 18 months continuously, if that's the case then demand must be coming off a lot faster than supply because the LME warehouse levels look like they've fallen off a cliff. The only fact I have to hang my hat on there is that the price of copper is what people are actually paying, not opining, and that is going up. Whether that's largely due to a weaker US dollar rather than demand I don't know, but as long as it continues I don't care. With regard the possibility that China is stockpiling, well as long as they're buying that's fine and if they're stockpiling it's because they believe the time will come when they need it.

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Hi Paul,

Thanks for your comments, you hold a not too dis-similar view to mine. I find the range of opinions about aspects of AVB and copper in general, (from posters on HC and various news outlets) are often almost directly opposite to one another. I'm not inferring that AVB will have difficulty selling their product, what I'm curious about is the motive of some of these posters and news outlets. When I read comments here on HC, I'm reading in too it that, quite a number of posters think China is the only likely customer we'll have. And I'm not so sure that is the case, or that I'm reading too much into some posts. Also, some posters have made comment that there are alternatives to copper, which is true. But there are increased opportunities for usage of copper too. For example, the relatively recent discovery that copper has antimicrobial properties, and therefore a superior alternative to stainless steel in hospitals, coppers use in effectively reducing the amount of carbon emissions from coal fired power generation and the potential demand for use that could be attributed to electric vehicles. I guess I should have mentioned this in my previous post, as I am wondering how much these new uses might off-set any alternatives being discussed. I guess, it's all a bit of a "how long is a piece of string " type question, but worth discussion IMO. Also, if some are going to discuss what the negatives are, ie, the possibility of diminishing demand because of alternate uses to copper, then we should weigh that against the counter argument. My questions were just intended to get some commentary from others, for me to muse over.

thanks again Paul.

AVB Price at posting: 7.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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