Inflation and / or Recession and / or Stagflation Debt Crisis
inflation feeding on itself,high interest rates for longer to crush inflation to Fed target 2%, RBA, BOE, ECB increasing rates at record pace
energy costs,
massive costs of greening / electrifying the planet,
costs of shelter incl rent, increasing mortgage costs,medical costs increasing, change to Medicare, bulk billing being reduced,
fixed property interest rates transitioning to variable over 2023,
record global debt - it’s infinitely worse since the GFC and no structural changes have been made since, massive increases in interest paid as a result, countries will default,
record level of derivatives (gambling),
market volatility,
money supply diminishing,
Covid still around,
supply chain issues,
wage increases needed to quell inflation,
global Recession forecast and 91% of US CEO’s in a study of 400 by KPMG are preparing for a Recession (downsizing, stopping expansion plans),
corporate earnings - if they drop they’ll need to put prices up or reduce workforce, if they remain robust it means inflation is embedded,
costs of climate change especially floods and fires,
demographics - the largest generation in history is leaving the workforce so there’s less taxpayers to support retirees, skills shortage,
low unemployment,
China woes and decoupling from USA, potential conflict with Taiwan,
Japan inflation concerns, wages risen at the fastest rate in 26 years
Ukraine / Russia war not ending anytime soon,
deglobalisation and reshoring,cyber warfare,
tightening credit is bad for housing and leads to more gambling on risky markets,
inverted yield curve, 3 mth 20 year curve indicator is inverted the deepest in decades,
insatiable appetite of the 20’s and 30’s to spend,
the US need their dollar to stay strong,
markets run on emotion so the psychological factor plays a huge part, as does the media, and right now it’s bearish
