I am never good at forecasting because of bias instincts so I can't comment constructively. I tend not to look at history repeating itself.
However I am quietly bullish that we may have found a base to work from. Frm here the 1182 - 1426 block of congestion will take more than technical buying to push through. That is why I am constantly gauging the +ve US news especially inflation related news and observe how GP reacts and so far they react +vely. This is telling me that consensus generic wholesale view of a strong USD is weak Commodity prices may not apply to gold with its natural tendencies as an inflation hedge.
Personally our best hope if for a very strong US economic recovery fueling the inflationary pressures that will force the Fed's hands at proactively reviewing the Feds Fund rate. The assumption is that additional QE in Japan will eventually fuel their domestic inflation in addition to EU wide QE. The risk is that China/Korea will not sit idly by and watch their competitive edge of price reduce by Japanese products. In time the US will realise that a strong USD is not also in their interest to stoke export $$ so this situation will take time to playout.
Meantime buying good quality gold stocks is the way to go personally and I stay away from IO unless it is BHP/RIO.
If 2 back to back weekly hammers on GP does not give support of a low base then god help us with gold exposure!
