Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

SSN

Click for more information

0.00%

1.5¢ samson oil & gas limited

Excellent post strazza

First 19 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
buc

7,875 Posts.

11

14/05/15

12:41

Post #: 15278502
Share

Originally posted by strazza ↑

Rob, I'm not sure I'd call this "an issue that needs fixing". I'm pretty sure this was an operational strategy during this period of deflated OP. It was primarily due to several wells being shutin for much of the quarter.

We know that all wells bar one are now online, what we don't know is the specific well flow rates and how much they are being choked. The arguments being put forward regarding decline curves are all well and good, except they are overly simplistic as they don't not account for managing the curve through controlled release.

Based on flow data provided by the company in the past (unfortunately they are no longer providing this) and making some rough assumptions on expected flow from the shut in wells, I calculated that the NS field currently has capacity to produce 1800-2200boepd, yet the April rate was 1064boepd. This tells me that unless my calcs were waaaay off, there is plenty of capacity to minimize the effect of the decline curve through 2015.

It is a precarious balance, as it all hinges on a shoring up of the POO, but this is the case for all small cap oil stocks - particularly shale oil - and for me SSN is looking *relatively* solid amongst its peers.

Expand

Excellent post strazza

SSN Price at posting: 0.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

There are more pages in this discussion • 23 more messages in this thread...

First 19 Last

Add SSN (ASX) to my watchlist