WLD 0.00% 4.0¢ wellard limited

I understand that the valuation from Morgan of 0.35 is...

  1. 403 Posts.
    I understand that the valuation from Morgan of 0.35 is disapointing, but it is quite reasonable and lodgical compared to their previous valuations, which were only misleading.

    WLD made a NPAT on proforma basis of $12.5m in the first half year, but only $1.5m to $2.5m in the second half year. Historically, WLD should have 70% profit from the second half year, but the 2nd half year only contributed 14% this year. I am expecting the statutory loss at the year end would be larger than half year report of $31m, because the addtional profit of $2m from the second half year would be very likely to be offset by the larger depreciation and interest expense due to the higher USD/AUD rate than the proforma basis statement.

    Brazil accounts for 17% of sales for WLD in 2016 FY, shipping 80K heads out of the total of 450K heads. Giving the Brazil market only opened in 2016 FY, it is a good result. To offset the disadvantage of 20% less Australian cattle shortage and keep shipping 450 heads in 2017 FY, they need to export 160K heads from Brazil in 2017 FY, and Australian source, 300K heads (decreasing by 20%). But since Shearer is on board, they should ship more than 300K heads from Brazil assuming that Shearer runs 7 consignments from Brazil. Seems very hard to jump from 80K heads in 2016FY to 300K heads in Brazil in 2017 FY. Isn't it?

    Traditionally, the exporter 's first half year's result would be weaker. There is no need to look at or top up WLD in the first half year. The share price would not have much movement, unless there is another operation error.
 
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