The S&P 500's P/E ratio has moved up to 24.4x from 22.3x at the start of the year. That's 32% higher than the historical median P/E going back to 1988 (18.5x). $SPX
...it is getting interesting that Gold appears to be somewhat decoupled from DXY, certainly a bullish outlook. To what degree Gold's recent rise is a function of speculative money or Buy and Hold, we should know in the week ahead. If the latter, Gold should be resilient in the face of any steep equity market or BTC correction; if the former, it could fall alongside all recent speculative ventures.
$DXY - A golden cross has appeared, suggesting the USD might get stronger in the coming months (April-June).
This signal has historically been accurate most of the time (66-82%).
Here's the breakdown:
The USD tends to go up after a golden cross. This has happened 66-77% of the time in the past, and even more often (65-82%) since the Euro started trading.
However, the initial rise after a golden cross might be slow. What to watch out for: April is typically a bad month for the USD, so there might be a dip before it goes up in May (which is usually a good month for USD).
A dip coming? Last Weekend's SmartReversals newsletter anticipated a bullish move targeting $106, today's top so far was $105ish and there is a daily shooting star in formation. A dip may be coming, unless $106 is conquered, statistics see April usually a red month. I always base my analysis on technicals, not in stats, this note is interesting though.
