Economists are delaying the timing of the likely first Reserve Bank interest rate cut following a warmer-than-expected inflation report.
Su-Lin Ong at RBC is now favouring a move in the first half of 2025, rather than late this year. She also reduced the magnitude of cuts this cycle to just two, from four previously.
“We now expect the cash rate to end 2024 unchanged at 4.35 per cent and end 2025 at 3.85 per cent”.
George Tharenou at UBS expects the first move in February 2025, from November 2024 previously.
Andrew Boak at Goldman Sachs is penciling in November 2024, from August. “We maintain our base case for a quarterly pace of cuts to a terminal rate of 3.25 per cent,” he said.
Luci Ellis at Westpac anticipates November, from September previously. “Given the slower progress on disinflation this quarter and the lower starting point for labour market slack, we now expect the first rate cut to occur after the November meeting,” she said.
Fund manager Angus Coote at Jamieson Coote Bonds expects a rate cut late this year, from August previously.
Michael Blythe at PinPoint Macroanalytics has pushed back the first easing to early 2025, from late 2024.
