@jakspara:
I have decided to re-post because of errors in the wording (numbers are the same):
My previous estimate of 72c (close to PAC Partners' 77c estimate) remains valid, however, it was based on different premises. For example, the 72-77c estimate assumed 80% ownersip, but today's estimate is based on 70% * 50% ownership. In addition, the 72-77c estimate was based on 1.9 bn shares, but today's is based on 2.3 bn shares (following another CR?). Today's valuation assumes 13% of the whole field (half of the M-2 fault block) is classified as 2P Reserves (50% of $A6/mscf sales price) following a successful well test plus an additional 13% of the whole field in the M-2 fault block as Contingent Resouces. There is also Contingent Resources for the M-1 fault block given there is a discovery there as well. Previously, the 72-77c valuation assumed the M-2 fault block (26% of field area, 180 Km2) was all classified as 2P Reserves, but today I decide to be more prudent by splitting it into 13% Reserves + 13% Contingent Resources.
The 72-77c estimate was also based on 5 Tscf gas in place for the whole field (26% of 5 Tscf is 1.3 Tscf) rather than 1.3 Tscf for the whole field.
Best regards
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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