Well that was a disappointment but all is not lost. Nor do I see it as particularly negative that it failed to follow through the break of that flag. It is after all that time of the year & it will take a good announcement to get it going.
If the breakout from the flag drawn last week appears to have failed then it may just be that I had drawn it wrong failed but if it has failed the sp may just settle back into the existing trading range box that we have been in since the 9th of May.
If than is the case then it is looking more likely that there will be no announcement before the close of books for this financial year.
The fact that it has not been sold down though is a good sign that the market is optimistic that it is close & hoping for something in the new year.
The appointment of a new Executive Director is a positive & may lend weight to that expectation.
So If I redraw the flag I see that it is actually a better fit than the previous one & last week may have been a bit early.
We are now back sitting on the base line with a build up of the volume which may be the lead up to another attempt to continue the breakout after this consolidation period. A flag ideally should breakout before it gets right into the pointy bit to be really valid.
If that happens then the price target will again be up to at least $0.18 based on another break of the flag.
My volume model shows buying for four of the five days last week. Selling at an avg. price of $0.126 & the buying at $0.122.
Thursday’s low volume could have been a test, looking for sellers & Fridays higher volume was I believe support by the mm. Of course that may be wrong.
Looking at the pitchfork chart. It is pretty self explanatory.
There was an attempt to rally up to the red forks ML which petered out close to the dotted blue parallel line & fell back to the base line.
The gap open on Monday started the run but now looks like just a mini p & d with that day’s volume showing as selling.
The following 4 days volume shows as buying but with a significant amount as just churning. (resetting their accounts?)
So, we are back at the lows, below the red dotted parallel, close to the green ML and Fridays larger relative volume looks to be indicating another run up may be on the cards for the coming week. Maybe it will have enough momentum this time to follow through.
Or maybe the mm will give it a really good test of the resolve of the holders & try to flush out some more sellers. It’s that time of year for traders to realise losses & reset their accounts so would not be at all surprised to see a flick down to meet the Red MLH line.
The monthly chart is still looking very positive as is the weekly. Both showing a normal period of consolidation after a break of the long term downtrend.
The monthly is bumping up against the resistance of that old H & S line but with three weeks to go I think that will be broken before the end of the month.
The weekly is building up into a nice looking bullish triangle with a potential $0.105 low & a $0.15 high for this week.
I would like to see an announcement this week but if think its still too early yet. Maybe the last week of the month perhaps.
