Sound thinking at this stage and tend to agree. The wild cards though that might see more upside to conservative share price estimates are an improvement in market sentiment for commodities and small caps generally, further exploration success ( I believe those drills are still drilling in the Carajas) and the copper supply/demand equation turning favourable. Note BHP reporting that they failed to meet analysts targets for copper production last quarter so as Glencore have been forecasting for some time now, global supply is drying up more quickly than expected as companies cut production and costs so the forecast deficit may arrive sooner than expected. Markets are generally forward looking (although you could argue that it appears not to be that way in recent times) so sentiment can play a part too. I suspect we'll have a clearer picture mid year on a number of measures. For now, companies in the small cap space can do no more than just get on with what they can control. And we'll have some news on that soon enough.
AVB Price at posting:
7.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
