I think it goes without saying that things have been delayed for AVB. No doubt they will not be able to construct and start commissioning in Q1 2015. One must remember that Q1 2015 is their best case scenario estimate. My estimates are probably 3-4th quarter 2015 (6-9 month construction time).
The mining lease remains a mystery as to when it will be approved but chances are it must be relatively close. In the mean time even if they received it, they haven't completed detailed design so they can't do serious development/construction work. Despite all this, i bought in regardless because AVB has heaps of cash to minimize delays through pre-development work and putting deposits on key items.
They are sitting on 32m cash, 3m out of 6m in deposits already paid and if you look closely at the capex costs, 4m is in field work, studies and engineering with some already paid for.
We are definitely sitting at the institutional investment stage with Appian and Blackrock joining the register with Glencore.
Here is to an exciting time ahead. Don't get too caught on the delays. It is common within the mining industry especially in brazil where waiting for permits is a pain (experience from holding CAS). More importantly look at their non-productive cash burn per quarter. In the 12months, they only burned 1.2m in admin which represents the costs of the delays.
I know AVB has tested the patience of long-term holders but definitely it is closer than ever now.
AVB Price at posting:
9.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
