New results from JWS Research confirms the slump in support over recent months for the Voice.
The percentage of people who plan to vote for, or lean towards 'Yes', has fallen 5 points since February, from 51% to 46% in June.
The 'No' has grown 7 points from 36% to 43% over that period. This suggests a softening in support from previous commited 'Yes' voters and a majority of 'Undecideds' swinging to 'No'.
The trend is showing a monthly rate of decline of just over 1%. If we assume the 'Undecideds' (11%) go 2 votes 'No' to 1 vote 'Yes' (as measured by the most recent Resolve polling), an extrapolation of JWS Research's figures lead to a defeat of the referendum based on the total nationwide vote.
5 of the states confirm the trend, with WA being the only one showing support increasing. Yes/No/Undecided/Extrapolated is as follows:
NSW: 41/47/12........45/55 VIC: 44/42/14........49/51 QLD: 45/46/9..........48/52 WA: 61/33/6..........63/37 SA: 43/42/15........47/52 TAS: Info not provided
The referendum won't pass the required majority of States either. But the very small number who are polled in each state means we should really be comparing them with State results from other polling organisations, IMO.
