Lowest Price in 10 years

My opinions on BHP are already known to HC. How the share price reacts to HY16 numbers will be interesting.

These are just guesses but here is what I think will happen:

Major drop in NPAT - YoY change may be fudged thanks to S32 divestment
Dividend reduced or Potential for dividend reduction flagged
Cuts to capex
Sudden fall in share price - indicating general market has not anticipated severity of fall in profit

Call me an idiot, call me a downramper, I have no position. Who is right and who is wrong will soon become clear.

If you do disagree please focus on the facts or logic presented.

Drop in profits 75% or more due to NPAT sensitivities
BHP will have to cut costs/capex to improve bottom line
Dividend will be affected, spooking investors and institutions

This may be priced in already but I don't think it is, not fully. I can't see how a $50B market cap can be justified when they owe something in the region of $30B, even though their assets are high quality. All will be revealed in the near future.