I can give this a crack but don't expect anything terribly sage...

I can give this a crack but don't expect anything terribly sage or insightful.

Fundamentals are not just backward looking. Yes last quarter's revenue/sales etc is - but there are ore reserves, debt obligations, proposed expenditures etc that are also forward looking. Add to that market sentiment, expected growth or future demand and markets etc and you build a larger picture that is forward looking while considering past performance. (see - lots of waffle here).

Stocks and markets tend to overshoot above and below "fair value" of the stock - something that is a misnomer because it relies on numerous unmeasurable and unquantifiable factors. Technical Analysis tends to reflect these overshoots, which is why I listed it as another consideration along with fundamentals I have no metric that tells me what the exact value of the stock is or should be ... let's just say "it's the vibe of the thing." Throwing together P/E ratios, current earnings, productions issues, COVID, supply chain problems, etc - and supported by a TA picture that looks overbought, I just think the company is somewhat overvalued for this point in time.

Would I sell? Nope. I have been holding and buying since the mean old days of $0.03 pre-consolidation. I have a very long time frame for this company and think it will be worth a great deal more. Don't get me wrong - I love LYC being worth this much now but I don;t expect it to last. I haven't tried to trade in and out LYC during that time - because it isn't worth the risk or the tax burden. I didn't sweat the drop from $3 to $1 in 2019 and wouldn't sweat a pullback now. And while I think it looks like a reasonable short I am not shorting it. The markets have been irrational for a long time and that is death to shorts.

jezza