Refer back to the 966-post long thread you finished on 31/03/2020 entitled "Leading indicators of an economic contraction" - post 964.
"The worlds printing presses are all simultaneously going into hyperdrive ... the real risk will become hyperinflation from governments new found lust for the amazing new elixir or life."
There is your answer - the primary driver of risk/volatility in your portfolio is governments and central banks.
Governments implemented the lockdowns that led to the stock markets collapsing ~30% in a couple of weeks. Then, their central banks pumped the living daylights out them with trillions and trillions in stimulus.
Now, central banks are going to collapse the stock market, because they are so far behind the eight-ball, thanks to 'lower for longer', at the exact time we all know they should have been tightening.
It has always been like that too. Governments and central banks caused the sub-prime crisis. Then, when the crap hit the fan, they flooded the market with cheap money, leading to today's debt bubble.
Therefore, the problem is not knowing what governments are going to do, it is whether you can know which way they will flip, before they even know it themselves.
If I don't even know what I am going to have for lunch tomorrow, I have got absolutely no chance of knowing what some stranger is going to do in a months time.
Of course statistics can help. However, at the end of the day, they only show a trend that occurred the past.
