I like going for the outsider in AfL games and try to find 2 or 3 games a round...(but some teams as the season progresses i put a line thru like Carlton and GC early last year and later in the season the Pies even tho Im a pie supporter and wont bet on them no matter wht the odds)
I especially like to bet on teams that every tipster man and his dog says cant win because i guess the other team start to think they have already won and come out on the ground wanting to do the flashy stuff like kicking goals and not getting in and under....the forwards stay too long in the fifty..in goal range. I swear ive seen plenty of forwards deliberately kick balls to a boundary line contest when out of range to try and get a second go on the throw in than centering it on the first kick....and the commentator says ..." He hasnt seen so and so..."..yeah bullshit...before the know it the game has slipped away.
Towards the end of last season b4 an Adelaide game i was listening to Sen and Dermott Brereton was going on and on how Adelaide had no chance because the were now emotionally and physically spent with Phil Walshs death etc,the other presenters were agreeing and going on great detail how an Adelaide victory was impossible. I immediately backed Adelaide..they bounded out of the blocks like they had come off bye...lol.
The best thing about taking the outsider is if they do get off to a good start the odds reverse and u can lay off...and be in a win win....
