to pibroch:
"Thanks for your thoughtful reply. The only thing I would guess differently is what would happen if Russia failed to stop the US/NATO.
I think it's likely that Russia has already confirmed with the US that it would detonate several small nuclear warheads inside Ukraine in relatively innocuous locations if it were in danger of defeat. And if that scenario occurred Russia would just do it without further warning.
THEN the US would shut down the war. That would of course make it easier politically for the US to stop the war on the basis that everyone was then fearing an escalation to Armageddon, as opposed to weakly giving in to a Russian bluff."****************************************************************************************************************************
You could be right and I could be wrong , like I've said before predicting future is so hard.
But I still think that Putin would communicate to Americans and NATO again, through back channels, that he is about to nuke Ukraine.
Why do I think so?
Because, first, I think Putin is a reasonable and patient politician.
Second, we are talking about dropping a nuke, an ultimate 'bomb' not just some ballistic missile, so more than one or two warnings are warranted and Putin, being a reasonable person, would tell them more than once or twice.
Third, Ithink that Putin wouldn't want to contaminate part of Ukraine with radioactive materials - this would also have bad consequences for Russia as winds could blow East. Not to mention that affected part of Ukraine's land would be rendered unusable for many years (think about Chernobyl and its surroundings).
This would also have implications for Putin's ally - Belarus - which has along border with Ukraine and its land is smaller in size.
And afther the war, Ukraine would most likely trade with Russia again - Ukraine's farm land with its rich top soil is considered to be one of the best in Europe. Again, all in my opinion.
