a quick Google search on global milk prices makes me wonder why so many people are positive on this stock.
For example, the following article from April 2015 :
Dairy price forecasts are turning ugly with analysts predicting steep global market falls still to come and the slump lasting longer than New Zealand farmers expect.
Futures market analysts say the Global Dairy Trade average price could yet sink as low as US$1250 to US$1500 per tonne. The average price on the latest auction was US$2746, after a 10.8 per cent fall.
Melbourne analyst Craig Ferguson, of Antipodean Capital Management, said dairy prices could fall by up to 60 per cent as global milk supply rises. He suggests prices are likely to fall further and for longer "than many think".
New Zealand analyst Peter Redward, whose company Redward Associates provides macro-economic analysis to Asia Pacific clients, said dairy prices would continue to fall "simply because supply is greater than demand".
He said it was not impossible that the GDT average price could fall to US$1500 a tonne. His company is forecasting a milk price below $5 for the coming season. The strong Kiwi dollar is an under-estimated partmce-anchor of the reason for the deteriorating outlook.
