"what I did wrong" Dead easy CCJ, you've missed every run up to...

"what I did wrong"

Dead easy CCJ, you've missed every run up to date immersed in your own little negative bubble, and inevitably you will miss the next one, but then again investing for profit is very clearly not your objective here.

The macros I raised are self evident, but again you demonstrate your total lack of understanding of the RE mkt, China is a distant galaxy from your bubble perspective.

While they've consolidated largely to two SOE's the RE supply chain is still very long & broad, and destocked, operating hand to mouth just sufficient to fill existing contracts, natural reaction to falling price trend.

Once it becomes evident the trend has turned, as appears likely, that broad supply chain will start restocking, buying the physical in the absence of any futures mkt of substance, Western manufacturers would simply buy forward. Given even modest demand growth restocking the physical creates its own inertia, though how powerful that might be in the current circumstances remains to be seen.

Recent comment re rebuilding a US CM reserve suggests USG understands this point, China still trades RE on a peasant mentality, a US magnetics tradeable reserve would be a huge step in establishing a relatively stable economic value around NdPr in particular, and stripping China of a lot of price control.

There are plenty of potential drivers well outside your thought bubble.