My opinion for potential catalysts for the SP:
1. Funding (Kathleen Valley Debt Facility)
LTR pumped to over $1.50 on the funding news about a month ago, but that was quickly sold back down when people realised it wasn't actually locked in yet.
by no later than 31 July 2024, the delivery of an updated mine plan and BCFM, based off amongst other things, independent price forecasts and forecasts of production and capital and operating costs approved by an independent technical expert, and which demonstrates the Project is sufficiently funded for the term of the Debt Facility and has the capacity to support a subsequent long term financing package
Once LTR delivers on the conditions outlined above, and the debt package conditions are fully met / is fully approved, then i believe we will see another SP rise which should hold (currently there are still fears/doubt regarding this funding package). We may see shorters closing and some FOMO etc.
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2. Potential for Gina + SQM to take over LTR (will explain below)
As you may know, SQM launched a take over offer for AZS. Gina quickly built a position in the company and wanted in on the deal (exactly the same as what she did with LTR when ALB launched a take over offer).
The difference was that ALB didn't want to work with her on LTR, but SQM were happy to partner with her to take over AZS together.
There were worries regarding FIRB approval of the take over because Tianqi (chinese) holds a stake in SQM (the reason why AZS was trading at a discount to the offer price, due to fear of it falling through).
Yesterday, FIRB issued the approval for the joint take over of AZS by SQM and Gina. This is significant news imo. Without this FIRB approval, my speculation below wouldn't be in play.
Speculation:
Most recently, SQM's director speaking at the official opening of the new Mt Holland lithium mine said: it was only the first step of its plans in Australia.“I would like to have 10 different Mt Hollands, one is not enough,” he said.
It makes sense to me, to speculate that potentially, SQM and Gina could work together on a deal on LTR aswell.
This is due to the enthusiasm shown by SQM wanting many more Australian lithium projects (they already own / operate 50% of Mt Holland with Wesfarmers, and now, part owner of AZS), aswell as Gina already holding a position/having interest in LTR - they partnered together for AZS, could we see another partnership for LTR?
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