(Updates prices, market activity and comments; changes dateline from previous TOKYO/LONDON)
The U.S. dollar edged down against the euro on Monday, at the start of an action-packed week for markets with Britain's budget, a European Central Bank meeting, U.S. jobs data and important political moments in both China and the U.S. all due.
Eyes were also on Bitcoin BTC= , which rose to a more than two-year peak above $65,000 after a quiet weekend, pushed higher in recent weeks by big flows into cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds, most notably in the United States.
The euro EUR=EBS was up 0.12% to $1.0853, while the dollar index =USD - which measures the currency against six major peers - was about flat at $103.83. The Japanese yen JPY=EBS fluctuated around the closely watched 150-per-dollar level. The dollar was last up 0.24% at 150.485 yen.
Most major currency pairs stuck close to recent trading ranges, as traders shied away from big directional bets ahead of this week's host of potentially market-moving events.
"FX markets are - once again - operating with an abundance of caution ahead of lots of new info this week," said Helen Given, FX trader at Monex USA in Washington.
"No one wants to get stung on any surprise, so I'd be surprised if flows don't remain muted in the front half of this week," she said.
In the United States, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before lawmakers on Wednesday and Thursday, and then there is U.S payrolls data on Friday, with forecasts pointing to a still-solid rise of 200,000 jobs after January's barnstorming 353,000 jump.
"Payrolls could be the bigger mover as Powell is likely comfortable with current market pricing for Fed cuts, while if we get another strong payrolls after the last blowout report that could affect market expectations (for Fed policy)," said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.
At the start of 2024, markets were pricing in substantial interest rate cuts early this year, but traders have since reduced such bets.
Pricing in derivatives markets now reflect expectations the first Fed cut will come in June, with three to four 25 basis point cuts this year, not far from the Fed's projections published in December.
This week also sees Super Tuesday, the biggest day on the calendar of U.S. presidential primaries.
Meanwhile, sterling was up 0.23% against the dollar at $1.2682 GBP=D3 as traders awaited the British budget, due on Wednesday. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt has been trying to dampen speculation about big pre-election tax cuts.
Elsewhere, the European Central Bank (ECB) meets on Thursday. Most ECB policymakers have been cautious about suggesting that they will be cutting interest rates soon.
"Obviously the big headliner for the U.S. is Chair Powell to Congress, but in my view I don't think he'll have much new to say about the path of the Fed that hasn't already been said. My eyes are on news out of Europe as this week's big movers," Monex's Given said.
On Monday, the Swiss franc jumped briefly after Swiss February inflation came in a fraction higher than expected at 1.2% compared with the previous year, though still lower than January's level and well within the Swiss National Bank's 0-2% target range.
The currency, however, soon gave up those gains and versus the franc, the dollar CHF=EBS was up 0.23% at 0.885 francs.
The Australian dollar AUD=D3 was down 0.12% with traders awaiting local GDP data Wednesday. Given Australia's close economic links with China, the currency will also be shaped by China's annual parliament meeting, which begins on Tuesday and at which authorities will announce the GDP goal and are expected to unveil moderate economic stimulus plans.
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