SYDNEY, Feb 26 (Reuters) - The New Zealand dollar fell on Monday as traders pared back bets the central bank could surprise with an interest rate hike this week, while the Australian dollar was also vulnerable ahead of a monthly inflation test.
The kiwi NZD=D3 fell 0.5% to $0.6164, after jumping 1.2% last week on risk that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may hike this week. However, some of that risk faded on Monday, reflected in the two-year swap rate NZDSM3NB2Y= falling six basis points from a three-month top to 5.1850%.
The Australian dollar AUD=D3 slipped 0.2% to $0.6551, having ended last week little changed. The currency is struggling to break its 200-day moving average of $0.6563.
The two face a pivotal week with the New Zealand's central bank meeting and Australia's inflation data both on Wednesday. Inflation readings in the U.S. and Europe also represent risk factors.
The majority of economists polled by Reuters expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hold rates steady at 5.5%, but still some did note the possibility of a hike given the bank's tendency to surprise.
"It's not our central case, but another hike from the RBNZ can't be completely ruled out," said Paul Bloxham, chief economist at Australia, NZ & Global Commodities.
"Although we expect them to be hawkish, and to project the possibility that they may have to hike again, we think the case for holding steady will again prove stronger than that for hiking."
On Wednesday, the release of the monthly Australian consumer price index (CPI) print for January will provide the latest indication of the inflationary pulse.
Economists expect inflation to have slightly picked up to 3.5% from 3.4% and any miss could revive the chance of another interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Australian government bond yields also fell on Monday. The three-year bond yield AU3YT=RR dropped 7 basis points to 3.733%, while the 10-year AU10YT=RR slumped 10 bps to 4.114%.
