Appreciating that these are risks and should be handled as...

Appreciating that these are risks and should be handled as such:

- activists putting the brakes on, at least for a while until Blackout Bowen freaks out in the run up to 2025 elections (broadly I don't see support for the loons growing or even sustaining, they're loud but unpopular)

- Sheffield & Co shortchanging ASX holders - always a chance but he seems to value leveraging other people’s money (I think this is a real risk, but really his teeth are already very deep into this, another aspect is that I don't believe there's an aspiration to operate, rather he's a partner at Formentera where they have a Billion raised and may other things to tend to)

- pipeline hold-ups - dunno (for the next 12 months the pipe capacity to Darwin is already there. For the connector to said capacity APA has already agreed to deeper arrangements with TBN, it would seem very bad relations w NT and industry to squabble. I suppose the eco terrorists could seek to obstruct but I don't see the NT having patience for that)

- gas price (this is not a risk, this is a feather in the economic hat that is truly exceptional)

- test data is a sham - seems highly unlikely (not a risk)

- fall out with H&P and/or Liberty - again seems highly unlikely (it would be disruptive and delay things, but neither of these companies are key to the success, they're helpful and high quality but replaceable. Hell, TBN already owns one! Probably needs work though. Frac spreads within Country can get the job done, see EEG.)
- they seem to relish the challenge to show Aussies they know nothin’ about frac’in (shutting the clam on US this and US that would benefit the ASX listing, but it clearly isn't understood that the US experience is neither unique or attractive as a sales pitch)

The elephant in the room that you know but didn't mention is dilution. Where will the early dev capital come from...the US $100M and a clear forward plan may alleviate the market concern post raise. Riddle's plan to go so big with everything has taken time and is expensive (at very least on G&A).

I have no concerns at all on well results, my first look over a decade ago suggested a result essentially the identical well rate to SS1H. It took a few wells to get there but the reservoir dictates the productivity and it is there. There will be the odd poor or failed well as per Amungee (imagine if Origin was clever or had figured that out) but frac optimization should be able to add about 50% to the normalized well results. Put that into your well economics and compare it globally...