My pleasure, CWG (brilliant profile name!).With great respect, I...

My pleasure, CWG (brilliant profile name!).

With great respect, I think your calcs are incorrect. The US$7.50/lb (payable basis) break-even reported by CJ in last Nov's AGM preso doesn't need any further adjustment because it already has the payability discount baked into it.
If an investor is wanting to track the current (100% basis) spot Ni price and relate it to how close to BS project is to break-even (on paper), then US$7.50/lb spot Ni is the hurdle, based on the 2022 BFS. It will be a bit different today due to cost inflation and also a slight difference the current Fx rate.
(NB: The various modelled Base, Spot, and Upside case scenarios only looked at material changes in Ni pricing. The modelled costs didn't move around much at all, as expected.)

Staying with the 2022 BS BS (1.1Mtpa smelter conc.) BFS break-even can be derived and expressed as:

• ~US$7.53/lb (payable basis) (i.e. rounded to US$7.50/lb in the 2023 AGM preso); or
• ~US$5.94/lb (100% basis). (This is the metric that would need to be divided by the payability rate to find a real-world number to can be related back to current spot Ni pricing -- aka 'payability basis'.)

As mentioned above I stayed with the BFS inputs and assumptions so as to avoid any confusion in replicating the derived values in this discussion (i.e. 30,000t contained Ni produced over LOM, 78.8% implied payability rate, 0.67 Fx rate, etc, etc..)

I don't bother trying to model the payability rates for the by-product credits at this level because they are treated as offset credits to opex and as such are already baked into the cost estimates. This which makes deriving the Ni payability rate (revenue) a lot simpler.

The Spot Case on Table 7 (p.11) of the 2022 BFS contained all the data that I required, along with the modelled 30,000t contained Ni produced over LOM mentioned elsewhere in the BFS).

I'm happy to show my calcs, if requested. It would be be a much larger and more involved post and I didn't want to go over-the-top here.

Cheers,
Z