I don't see much downside at all, everyone has been waiting for this moment to buy, I'm just pissed that a term deposit is not free until mid August
Closed a fund Friday to free up 100K
Anyone who knows how to value stocks knows the downside is factored in, any down turn will not last given this FY outlook.
I wrote in the take over thread,
"If they only made 16 mill in profit last financial year, they are still fundamentally worth .40 a share.
$16 mill/400 (shares on issue) = .04 cents per share
PE (price earnings) .04 x 10 = .40 cents per share.
The comment above in my previous post, was just a hypothetical, I always try to work my numbers off a worse case scenario.
So if they made $30 mill at the end of this FY I'd value them at $ .75 minimum assuming the market continues to value them on a ten times earnings ratio. I think the ratio will rise to 15 times once profits increase relatively consistently.
30 mill profit /400 mill (shares on issue) =.75
Morgans forecast earnings to reach .10 per share in 2018!!
If this plays out they would be valued closer to 13 times as the sector is hot being that it sits in a takeover sector of the Chinese.
.10 x 13 = $1.30
The Chinese are insanely cashed up, check out this article....
They have their eyes on the Kidman property.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...e/news-story/2a970618cffd689ebb6fa27baba28d76
Australian politicians are too short-sighted, surely our large super funds will see the value in investing in a enterprise that produces something the world needs, protein.
Countries like Hawai and Bali provide long term leases, I feel we should do the same!!
(Sorry, got slightly off topic there)
However, a company like Wellard is different, in my view, you can build another company, but you cannot make land. Once sold it will not go back on the market.
Sell them Wellard in a few years when the share price is closer to $1.30 and lease the properties!!!
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