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Originally posted by buc
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Halliburton (
HAL ) President Jeff Miller recently provided investors with some unique insights into the oil market on the oil-field services company's fourth-quarter conference call.
"Although oil demand growth expectations for 2015 have weakened, it is still growth. Demand is forecast to increase by an estimated 900,000 barrels per day. Keep in mind the steep decline curves are still at work. We estimate the average annual production decline rates for unconventionals in North America are in excess of 30%, and much higher in some areas. Depending on the ultimate trajectory of the rig count declines and the backlog of well completions, we believe that North America crude production could begin to respond during the back half of the year. Internationally, decline rates have become more pronounced in several key markets over the last couple of years. In areas like Angola, Norway, and Russia historical growth has given way to net production declines in the last year. While decline rates in markets like Mexico and India have actually accelerated."
That projected 900,000-barrel demand increase makes clear the world has not suddenly abstained from using oil. It might be using less than supply at the moment, but that moment could quickly pass as production peaks and then naturally falls. That process is already under way in a number of countries, and U.S. production could peak and begin to decline in the second half of the year.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2015/01/27/motley-fool-haliburton-oil-market/22415247/
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"Keep in mind the steep decline curves are still at work. We estimate the average annual production decline rates for unconventionals in North America are in excess of 30%, and much higher in some areas".
