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1.5¢ samson oil & gas limited

Cmon Buc, quit wasting peoples time. You asked, I answered and...

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cmonaussie

10,742 Posts.

3512

15/12/14

16:39

Post #: 14463415
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Originally posted by cmonaussie ↑

You're a hoot Buc. Totally transparent.

Buc posts on 28/11/14 #14374521

"Mutual of Omaha Bank agreed to double the borrowing base to $50 million and decreased the interest rate, all while the world is crashing around oil companys. Surely this is a big plus for Samson.

What can SSN do with the remainder $31 million at it's disposal, in a depressed market, with assets going at fire sale prices? Well, they have already made the point of going thirdsy's on some prime conventional assets.

Samson is in a stong position while others are bleeding. As I have said before, these once in a lifetime opportunities don't come around too often, imo."

What was SSN's EV on Sep 30 Buc? Closed at 1.9cps so EV ~ 70.2M
(53.9M in MC + 11M in Debt - $5.3M cash)

What was LNR's EV on Sep 30? Closed at 40cps so EV ~ $523.9M
(300.88M in MC + 237M in Debt - $14M cash)

Using standard multiple of EV/EBITDA we have
LNR with EBITDAX of $23.4M for Qtr ended Sep 30, annualized to $93.6M and multiple of 5.6 timesSSN with EBITDAX of ???????? for Qtr ended Sep 30, annualized to ??????? and multiple of ??? times

That metric may well favour SSN (the lower the better in case you're wondering as it signals potential undervalue) Analysis I've seen say peer average Bakken players now going at +/- 4.6 times (note of course LNR is EFS based which is is considered much better location and attracts higher multiple)

Analysts would say peer basis (Bakken) average multiples of +/- 4.6 times for 2015.

Debt to EBITDAX metric is all about how stressed the debt is. We know that 3.5 is a common number Banks will hold their Borrowing base to.

LNR with EBITDAX of $93.6 annualized & Debt of $237M for Qtr end Sep 30, calculates to 2.53 times
SSN with EBITDAX of ?????? annualized & Debt of $11M for Qtr end Sep 30, calculates to ????? times

Looks to me like LNR has a lot of room in its debt.

Now we all know that SSN increased its debt to $15.5M (increase by 40.9% from $11M).
Buc suggests LNR debt now $250M so lets go with that (increase by 5.5% from $237M)

Relatively speaking Buc, SSN becoming far more indebted.

We could move to interest coverage ratio and compare that
LNR has $93.6 EBITDAX/$20M interest so coverage of 4.68 times
SSN has ?????? EBITDAX/???M interest so coverage of ?????

Buc, please provide the fill-ins for the ??????
Thanks

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Cmon Buc, quit wasting peoples time. You asked, I answered and now all you do is pollute the LNR board with:

http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/hed...2416172/page-28?post_id=14463362#.VI5zAVfQqE0

"$20 million interest divided by 340 days average =

$58 823 interest per/day, - plus operating costs.?

would that be about right, cmonaussie?"

Put up or shut up Buc.

SSN Price at posting: 1.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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