"Mutual of Omaha Bank agreed to double the borrowing base to $50 million and decreased the interest rate, all while the world is crashing around oil companys. Surely this is a big plus for Samson.
What can SSN do with the remainder $31 million at it's disposal, in a depressed market, with assets going at fire sale prices? Well, they have already made the point of going thirdsy's on some prime conventional assets.
Samson is in a stong position while others are bleeding. As I have said before, these once in a lifetime opportunities don't come around too often, imo."
What was SSN's EV on Sep 30 Buc? Closed at 1.9cps so EV ~ 70.2M
(53.9M in MC + 11M in Debt - $5.3M cash)
What was LNR's EV on Sep 30? Closed at 40cps so EV ~ $523.9M
(300.88M in MC + 237M in Debt - $14M cash)
Using standard multiple of EV/EBITDA we have
LNR with EBITDAX of $23.4M for Qtr ended Sep 30, annualized to $93.6M and multiple of 5.6 timesSSN with EBITDAX of ???????? for Qtr ended Sep 30, annualized to ??????? and multiple of ??? times
That metric may well favour SSN (the lower the better in case you're wondering as it signals potential undervalue) Analysis I've seen say peer average Bakken players now going at +/- 4.6 times (note of course LNR is EFS based which is is considered much better location and attracts higher multiple)
Analysts would say peer basis (Bakken) average multiples of +/- 4.6 times for 2015.
Debt to EBITDAX metric is all about how stressed the debt is. We know that 3.5 is a common number Banks will hold their Borrowing base to.
LNR with EBITDAX of $93.6 annualized & Debt of $237M for Qtr end Sep 30, calculates to 2.53 times
SSN with EBITDAX of ?????? annualized & Debt of $11M for Qtr end Sep 30, calculates to ????? times
Looks to me like LNR has a lot of room in its debt.
Now we all know that SSN increased its debt to $15.5M (increase by 40.9% from $11M).
Buc suggests LNR debt now $250M so lets go with that (increase by 5.5% from $237M)
Relatively speaking Buc, SSN becoming far more indebted.
We could move to interest coverage ratio and compare that
LNR has $93.6 EBITDAX/$20M interest so coverage of 4.68 times
SSN has ?????? EBITDAX/???M interest so coverage of ?????
Buc, please provide the fill-ins for the ??????
Thanks
SSN Price at posting:
1.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
