Too funny Rob. I for one would not want to revive those old days. I also had a garage awash with water - 300mm+ in our area.
I agree that experience sheds new light and helps with interpretations. Someone once said something like there's a always a bull market somewhere and there are always bull stocks in bear markets.
While the sector may not be in favor it still offers opportunities to make (or lose) money. While sentiment counts, in the end money counts more. When I put up my earlier post it was more in relation to what price assets were fetching and putting that in context of EBITDA. Sometimes when you get conflicting signals its a sign of market mispricing - and I wonder if that is occurring for SSN or whether the market has it right.
The one thing I didn't put in the post and I might as well highlight it now (in case I'm coming across as not wearing my black hat), is I don't subscribe any value to Bluff (so if that comes in hopefully happy days for holders) and the Paradox Basin is well a paradox to me. Page 9 of the presentation - 2nd bullet point - "realized oil price of $50/Bbl" is the key. SSN has not given what the local differential pricing is. So lets say its "Bakken like" and its $10/Bbl. That means you need WTI to be $60/Bbl. And that's 50% more than it is at present.
Maybe investors are thinking there are no wells for SSN to drill that make economic returns as WTI at $60 is the mid term highpoint (say thru 2016). If so then the only thing to look forward to is some FCF being generated (a good thing) but what happens in Jan'17???
I was just thinking that maybe there was actually a short term (long) trade to be made maybe.
SSN Price at posting:
0.4¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
