My guess is continues to be 18-24 months and prices move down lower to really shake things up. There must be plenty of supply in the pipeline for speculators to dump oil as aggressively as they have.
From what I have read some oil shale holes produce a lot less oil after one year, and if the oil price can remain depressed for a considerable amount of time, it will really discourage high cost operations from further drilling.
It will be interesting to see if price will test the GFC low of 35 per barrel.
From my point of view anything below 55 is worth a long term buy, and certainly more aggressively below 45. I have been waiting a long time for such a good opportunity in oil.
Down from almost 150 per barrel in 2008 and the geopolitical premium stripped out of it, I like it a lot.
