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happy Hippy

5,651 Posts.

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04/04/17

22:11

Post #: 23857986
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Originally posted by Goldmansach ↑

Been in and out and back in, but watching closely.

Re oversold...
Tricky with aisc obviously at this stage but ill work on 1200 so $400/t profit once kinks are sorted, give them until eofy.
Then taking into account cash on hand gives current ev of ~100m. In order to justify that, at a PE of say 7 (very modest) we would need to produce ~40k oz pa. So based on simple calcs, yep way over sold. Sp reflects level of market of confidence, or lack of. Markets are unforgiving on guidance. It's been said before, but for the love of money... under promise and over deliver!

Reason I'm a buyer is because we are not talking incompetence as much as unfortunate timing I believe (or perhaps a bit of both). Ramp up is tough enough without significant rain events delaying progress. Yes there were other issues, but they are painful lessons, and hopefully they'll only have to learn them once

So, do we believe blk can produce 40k oz pa @ 1200 aisc to justify current MC? This is a 6 month hold for me and I'm backing them in to better it. Some will doubt they will deliver on aisc, which is fair enough as it's unproven, but I dont think anyone will doubt they can beat 40k oz unless the whole bloody plant burns down.

I might cop a pasting for this but, for all those in the red I for one don't believe it's as bad as it looks.

I doubt management are saints, but they're probably not devils either. Their lives would be a whole lot better if they can get this thing running smoothly. Let's hope they learn fast or bring in talent that know the game inside out. The money is there.

GLTA

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Good summary Goldmansach.
I dont often agree with Aussiemans posts but did find myself nodding when he suggested Dixon put the suitcase away and move his desk to Wiluna. Lets just get the place pumping out a nice 100,000-120000 oz pa with a good LOM before spruiking 200,000 plus expansion programs. I think they all got ahead of themselves when POG shot up 18 months or so back.

BLK Price at posting: 40.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
8 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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