Well said Richard!! and a chicken coup is more likely to happen...

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lecram

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27/01/21

20:35

Post #: 50483480
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Originally posted by Richard1973 ↑

So, there has been a lot of online chatter in Myanmar set off by an army press conference yesterday, when they refused to rule out the possibility of taking power: "we're not saying we will, we're not saying we won't". Given the power of the military as an institution, and its recent history of decades of authoritarian military rule, this has alarmed many people in Myanmar, and the civilian government is a bit nervous (Military voluntarily handed over power in 2011 under a constitution it wrote which preserves its essential interests).

A coup seems very unlikely:

1. Yesterday's press conference was just the latest bout of sabre-rattling by the military. The whole point seems to be to make the government nervous at a time when they are about to appoint the ministers etc for the next 5-year term, starting in March.

2. The military may want to throw its weight around, but it's very unlikely it wants to retake power. The election results showed how popular the NLD government is and how unpopular the military. Internationally, this would go down very badly - would further destroy Myanmar's relations with the west, bring likely sanctions, and kill off foreign investment. The military would be blamed for all this.

So a coup very unlikely, but they may issue more ominous statements in the next few weeks. Personally, I saw this as a buying opportunity and picked up almost a mil. That's not to say there is zero risk - there are always risks. But in my personal view this was a big holder getting cold feet, not a proportionate response to the situation. DYOR GLTAH

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Well said Richard!! and a chicken coup is more likely to happen before anything else.

MYL Price at posting: 8.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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