Ok since you're so keen to know, you recklessly butchered my reply in your attempt of a rebuttal.
You said: So you're basing your annualised rate on one months data ? So are you saying that Melbourne is going to fall 45.9% in the next year ?
I never said that. I said it was falling like a stone, not that it would continue to fall like a stone over the next 12 months. I'm in the bear camp of what Nedved outlined above, a self-reinforcing contraction whereby job losses in residential construction and other indirect employment feeds into the falling house price dynamic. Meanwhile, the investors who pushed this up may start to chase it down to preserve capital. Am I forecasting a 45.9% fall in Melbourne, no. If you look at most overseas crashes - e.g. Ireland had a peak annual fall of 20%. That wouldn't surprise me.
