Hi DB & All....
Correct me if I am wrong but I don't think FAR has ever mentioned a STOIIP figure, only CNE
has @2.7Bboo @ RF of 17%. So, to me, as I have mentioned previously, just another anomaly or
omission that we have to "guess" around. IF FAR are using 17% RF then 3.75bbooiip is the figure
they are using v 2.7bboiip CNE. I trust this is the case, as the RF should increase markedly if
connectivity proves to be very good/excellent. A differential of 1Bbooiip is significant to say the least...
it however cannot be dismissed considering the different levels of reporting and additions/omissions
by each member of the JV.
I entered FAR pre-Kora, based entirely on the Senegal acreage and my "faith" remains strong in
what is now a new major basin within the Sangomar Deep block. Based on the parameters
around SNE1-4....por/perm/flow rates/water-gas cap/consistent 32 API throughout AND the fact
that x hundreds of meters of core were recovered "uninterrupted"... I remain confident that SNE5/6
will deliver great connectivity within the field. 30%RF on an extra 1Bbooiip {If FAR are using 3.75b}
would equate to an extra 40mmboo NET to FAR @13%WI {Assuming Petrosen take up their xtra %}.
No small change in any ones language. I would expect that if connectivity is very good then we could
expect 25-30% RF updated from the present very conservative 17%RF. Horizontal drilling in the
deeper sands {I would expect this to be initiated on the producing wells come actual production}
can only add further to the EUR. No guarantees on connectivity/RF being upgraded of course but
I like the "odds"........I liked the odds of the Senegal acreage 6 years ago, I liked the odds of
successful appraisal results... what can I say...I like the odds.
I am getting slightly long in the tooth now for any speculation around the SP, DJ, & the interminable
PE questions. I didn't invest in the first place based on DJ or PE so why should it worry me now.
I can only hope that the DJ seismic has thrown up some good targets and FAR remain a player in that
block....I don't know what is going on there with Trace/our farm-in interest and the delayed results
of that seismic which I think was due 4-6 months ago? As for PE, well I am hoping for some sort of
small victory in that regard...maybe DJ is in play....maybe a sweetener to drop the right to PE from
WPL....who bloody knows? 8 months or however long it's been now seems inordinately long for at
least SOMETHING to have given... I agree with you Tony on that point...but what are we to do or
make of it.??
I remain wary of the global economic backdrop...although I am now of the opinion that the "Extend
and Pretend" game of this sick global economy can go on for a few years yet...Central Banks and the
Donald will probably see to it. As such, I feel the next 3-6 months should be good for FAR's SP if
POO can remain >$50-$60, connectivity is proven to be very good, contingent resources are
upgraded, DOC can be declared {and with it some 2P reserves}. This should surely drown out
any negative news around a CR, DJ & PE.....when it does finally come and if it is in fact negative.
Anyways, thought I would check in as I haven't posted for a fair while...{I still read the threads on
a daily basis}....good to see some of the old crew still here....the Dr, Whiskey, OOO, LNC Link,
Hardmano, Tony 999, DB, Mr Hustler....will be back once the results from SNE5 are released.
With all the shenanigans revolving around supposed SP manipulation, DJ, PE etc and the bad timing
of the collapse in the POO and sentiment after finding oil, I find myself getting a tad emotional and
sentimental about our Field...I told you I was getting long in the tooth. After initially investing in FAR
and copping the failure of Kora & seeing our SP slashed from 17c to sub 3c over time I was probably
in the camp of "Red" from the movie Shawshank Redemption ;
Red ; " Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane"
I now find myself squarely in Andy's corner ;
Andy ; "Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies".
GLTAH
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